Jim Hlavac
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Foreign Affairs
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The swath of land from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean which lies along
the Mediteranean Sea is densely populated along a thin strip about 100 miles
thick. The only major exception is Cairo, and in this case you can call this the
leg of the "fertile T" -- because the Nile is perpendicular with the North African
Coast. The vast majority of the interior is the Sahara, where there are towns,
even cities, but all are small and dusty, and had a great era when the lack of
technology forced people to walk across the desert.
The countries there are all repressive. The bookends of Morroco and Saudi
Arabia are both Absolute monarchies. Both are "stable" because of repression.
The divine right of kings is blatantly stated. Not even a pretense of individualism.
Algeria has been at war since the French refused to leave in the 1950's.
Essentially it's been nearly 50 years of constant war. It has destroyed all chance
at normalcy and prosperity.
Tunisia is the brightest spot, but it too is poor and backwards because of
the culture beliefs of the people. When melded with the socialist mentality of
the government then the prospects for prosperity are dim.
Libya has been a disaster since Qaddafi. He squandered and plundered
the wealth and the people remain poor and quiescent. At least he has stamped
out the fundamenatlists so that perhaps when he dies there is a reasonable, if
difficult, transition.
Egypt is a monarchy in all but name. Murbarrak is president for life and his
family and friends run the businesses and the military and the country. Any one
trying to question that is summarily removed from the scene. The country
receives five billion dollars a year in United States aid, for more than 20 years
now. The country is still dirt poor because of the statist mentaiity of the
government and the fundamentalist values of the people.
The little Person Gulf emirates are all absolute monarchies where the divine
right is blatantly stated. But the emirs act no different than say, Fidel Castro, or
the Dear Leader, Kim, in North Korea -- it is absolute power. That they allow a
little more economic activity is only because it is all related to oil. There is no
other economy there. In the oil producing states there are really two economies.
There is the traditional one which most of the people still live in, and then there
is the modern oil based economy. Sure there's interaction, but they are still
separate and act on wholly different assumptions.
In traditional Muslim cultures you can't loan money for interest -- and thus
modern banking and business is excluded. The only way to get around this
prohibition is by having offshore banks like in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, two of the
emirates. So the kings live in hypocrisy -- in order for the oil to flow. Wouldn't it
be better for everyone involved to ultimately just have the banking open -- the
people will remain poor if they never adopt the modern ways.
This is always the tug of the reality -- the modern world is inescapable not
because it is powerful and pushes its way in. But because the vast majority of
the people actually want it. There would not be the unrest and the constant
trials of intellectuals and the banning of books and the internet and tv and
western products if the people there didn't want these things. Obviously there
is some level of demand. And the powers that be know that if they let these
things in they would be swept away as surely as the communists in Russia.
And there wouldn't be a constant level of emigration to America if these
people didn't want these things that we have. And we couldn't sell these things
to them if they didn't want it.
the Mediteranean Sea is densely populated along a thin strip about 100 miles
thick. The only major exception is Cairo, and in this case you can call this the
leg of the "fertile T" -- because the Nile is perpendicular with the North African
Coast. The vast majority of the interior is the Sahara, where there are towns,
even cities, but all are small and dusty, and had a great era when the lack of
technology forced people to walk across the desert.
The countries there are all repressive. The bookends of Morroco and Saudi
Arabia are both Absolute monarchies. Both are "stable" because of repression.
The divine right of kings is blatantly stated. Not even a pretense of individualism.
Algeria has been at war since the French refused to leave in the 1950's.
Essentially it's been nearly 50 years of constant war. It has destroyed all chance
at normalcy and prosperity.
Tunisia is the brightest spot, but it too is poor and backwards because of
the culture beliefs of the people. When melded with the socialist mentality of
the government then the prospects for prosperity are dim.
Libya has been a disaster since Qaddafi. He squandered and plundered
the wealth and the people remain poor and quiescent. At least he has stamped
out the fundamenatlists so that perhaps when he dies there is a reasonable, if
difficult, transition.
Egypt is a monarchy in all but name. Murbarrak is president for life and his
family and friends run the businesses and the military and the country. Any one
trying to question that is summarily removed from the scene. The country
receives five billion dollars a year in United States aid, for more than 20 years
now. The country is still dirt poor because of the statist mentaiity of the
government and the fundamentalist values of the people.
The little Person Gulf emirates are all absolute monarchies where the divine
right is blatantly stated. But the emirs act no different than say, Fidel Castro, or
the Dear Leader, Kim, in North Korea -- it is absolute power. That they allow a
little more economic activity is only because it is all related to oil. There is no
other economy there. In the oil producing states there are really two economies.
There is the traditional one which most of the people still live in, and then there
is the modern oil based economy. Sure there's interaction, but they are still
separate and act on wholly different assumptions.
In traditional Muslim cultures you can't loan money for interest -- and thus
modern banking and business is excluded. The only way to get around this
prohibition is by having offshore banks like in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, two of the
emirates. So the kings live in hypocrisy -- in order for the oil to flow. Wouldn't it
be better for everyone involved to ultimately just have the banking open -- the
people will remain poor if they never adopt the modern ways.
This is always the tug of the reality -- the modern world is inescapable not
because it is powerful and pushes its way in. But because the vast majority of
the people actually want it. There would not be the unrest and the constant
trials of intellectuals and the banning of books and the internet and tv and
western products if the people there didn't want these things. Obviously there
is some level of demand. And the powers that be know that if they let these
things in they would be swept away as surely as the communists in Russia.
And there wouldn't be a constant level of emigration to America if these
people didn't want these things that we have. And we couldn't sell these things
to them if they didn't want it.